Wednesday, September 10, 2008

SO ALOT OF PEOPLE ARE STARTING TO QUESTION THE ACCURACY OF THE POLLS....( YEAH ME TOO)


Alot of us have been talking - there is SOMETHING VERY FISHY about the Polls? What is it? Are they ONLY calling Repugs? Only Repug Women ? WHO are they calling ? Do they call DEMS Ever? Do they call people with Cellphones ? HOW could DEM Voter Registration be UP and yet NO Numbers reflect that ? .....read the article...Huffpost is all over it....(first posted 9.9.08am)

UPDATE 9.10.08 11:30PM::: And so is Daily Kos.....read post above..

9 comments:

Gryphen said...

It may in fact be that the effort to steal this election from the people is already under way.

All we can do is call them on the lies and remind people that this was done before and then to ask them if are they happy with the outcome of those elections?

Personally I feel like carving my vote into the wall of the local high school that I am zoned to vote at.

"See I voted for Barack Obama, it is carved right there!"

enigma4ever said...

Good For you Gryphen..and this year we ALL photo our vote too....

that is why we should scream at the media NOW and also make a stink..and let our OTHER Countries Watching KNOW that something is ALREADY happening...

But I need to say they tried to do this in 2006 too remember Rove saying that the Repugs were DOING GREAT IN ALL STATES ????

Christopher said...

Polling requires a landline.

80% of people under 30 years of age don't have a landline. This is cell phone nation. I haven't had a landline in 5 years.

So who is being sampled? Think about it.

Jackie said...

I agree with Christopher. I have actually done a little bit of work on this topic.

As of about a year ago, the CDC determined that 16.8% of adults do not have landlines. Only one year earlier, that figure was 12%. So, in one year alone, 5% of potential voters reachable by pollsters disappeared. So, by now, perhaps that figure is 20% or more.

Who are these people? A study of the demographics of cell-only use, conducted in 2006, determined that the people not using landlines are disproportionally young (under 30), low-income minority, and people who live in homes with other adults to which they are not related.

These groups look overwhelmingly like Obama voters to me. If the unreachable group is 20% of your potential sampling pool AND it is NOT representative of the entire pool, that seems like a statistical nightmare to me, and would tend to make the polls less accurate than reflected in the "sampling error" the pollsters are reporting.

I do not know if pollsters make an effort or are able to compensate for this. My (slight) background in statistics informs me that there must be some critical "unreachable" percentage at which the polls are essentially useless.

If we aren't there yet, maybe we are close.

Furthermore, this does not even take into account the people who have landlines, see an unfamiliar number on their caller ID (or are getting a call on a rarely-used line at a time they would not be expecting), and not pick up the call. I think pollsters somehow compensate for "hangups" in their sampling (which sounds odd to me anyway), but how do you compensate for a phone that is not even picked up when it rings?

That reminds me of that old joke: who is less likely to pick up the phone? A Republican or Democrat?
My gut (experience in observing human nature) tells me lonely people would be more likely to pick up the phone regardless of what the ID says. Who's more likely to be lonely? I have my own thoughts on this. But they are generalities and might offend some people reading, so I'll stop here.

sara said...

Christopher said...
Polling requires a landline.

80% of people under 30 years of age don't have a landline. This is cell phone nation. I haven't had a landline in 5 years.

So who is being sampled? Think about it.............."


Frickin right on dude, i been sayin this for like 2 months now on the blogs.

enigma4ever said...

Jackie::
you are so sharp about this- and you would not offend anyone...you are right- the polls are based on pretty limited sampling....In my hood- there are very few landlines- on my block there are maybe three- the rest are all cellphones...and even the elderly have cellphones...

But you are right too about the caller ID....many won't answer a call they do not recognize....

really good point...

Christopher::
see Jackie kind of finished your thoughts there ;-)

thanks- it really does all come down to the phones...and the landline issue...

enigma4ever said...

oooops sorry Sara- missed ya there...yup that is the truth....I actually don't really know anyone with a landline...

R.J. said...

I have a landline, but only because I refuse to do a cell phone on a contract when I can get unlimited minutes and long distance from home.

enigma4ever said...

RJ:::
Hey there...we have no deals like that here- otherwise we would have such a line...have not had a landline in a long time...use cell- but I have no contract- it is a pay as you go kind of thing....